| The global markets for child and adult diapers, roughly $46 billion and $16.7 billion respectively, might seem static — the kind of habitual, locked-in consumer purchase. But few products show just how much generational shifts can ripple through the wider economy. In fact, the convenience became so popular with parents that potty training, which in Donovan’s time used to begin before 18 months, now starts closer to 36 months on average, in part thanks to the benefits of disposable diapers. Talk about a captive market. Personal-care companies are being challenged not by a baby boom but by the graying of the globe. Whereas baby-diaper unit sales dropped 1% last year during a period of inflation and declining birth rates, adult-diaper products are forecast to grow nearly 8% a year and hit $28 billion in annual global sales by 2030. In the US, the diaper movement is indicative of the silver tsunami, a broad shift of the American population toward more aged individuals, many of whom may suffer incontinence related to pregnancy, childbirth, diabetes, or obesity, yet maintain an active social and sporting life. ? Baby-diaper unit sales dropped 1% last year during a period of inflation and declining birth rates. Adult-diaper products are forecast to grow nearly 8% a year and hit $28 billion in annual global sales by 2030. These changes have already taken place overseas, especially in countries grappling with cratering fertility rates. In March, Japanese manufacturer Oji Holdings announced it would stop selling baby diapers in its own country, going adult-only in Japan while selling child diapers in other Asian nations. The growing adult market is creating demand for more svelte, stylish, and less visible products. Ulrika Kolsrud, president of Sweden’s Essity health brand — maker of a low-rise, disposable underwear for adults called Silhouette Noir — said that "if incontinence was a country, it would be the third-largest country in the world." This rise in demand has challenged manufacturers to keep up. One key issue is the astronomical cost of adding new production lines. A machine that makes just one size of diapers costs roughly $4 million, which Pricie Hanna, managing partner of Price Hanna Consultants and industry expert, said has been making it tough for new entrants in the industry. They may master marketing, but they’re usually stuck cobbling together contract manufacturing options as they scale. Preparing production plants and marketing plans for this demographic shift remains a challenge. While sales of adult-incontinence products — don’t you dare call them diapers — have been growing steadily for years, they’re made on different machines than smaller baby diapers, requiring a delicate balance when it comes to shifting production lines. |
